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Olle Johansen
# Posted: 14 Jan 2006 23:01
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European Biology and Bioelectromagnetics

Alzheimer mortality
why does it increase so fast in sparsely populated areas?

Örjan Hallberg1, M.Sc. e.e., and Olle Johansson2, Assoc. Professor
1) Polkavägen 14B, 142 65 Trångsund, Sweden
2) Experimental Dermatology Unit, Department of Neuroscience, Karolinska Institute,
S-171 77 Stockholm, Sweden

Reprint requests and correspondence to: Örjan Hallberg, e-mail: oerjan.hallberg@swipnet.seAbstract

Purpose:
To investigate the mortality in nervous system-related diseases in different parts of Sweden to see if it may have any correlation to mobile phone output power. Methods: The average output power from mobile phones was calculated based on power measurements and information on mobile system coverage over the country. Mortality data was obtained from the National Board of Health and Welfare in Sweden. Results: The main contribution to the increased mortality in nervous system-related diseases was deaths due to increasing mortality in Alzheimer's disease (AD). The correlation between mobile phone average output power and mortality has increased the last few years and is today significant. Conclusions: The mortality in Alzheimer's disease appears to be associated with mobile phone output power. The mortality is increasing fast and is expected to increase substantially within the next 10 years. Deeper studies in this complex area are necessary.

Introduction
Telia AB and Ericsson Research have demonstrated that the average output power from mobile phones varies between different parts of Sweden due to varying degrees of mobile system coverage [1]. This degree of coverage is well documented on the web pages issued by the main Swedish mobile system operators, Telia AB, Tele2 AB and Vodafone AB. It is also evident that the health care costs are the largest in counties having high average output pulse power from mobile phones [2].
Several scientific studies point at risks for decreased health, e.g. cochlea nerve cancer [3,4] after long term use of mobile phones. We thus decided to study if counties where the average output power from the mobile phones is high also have a high mortality in nervous system diseases.
Recent investigations of the effect from microwave radiation on the brain has risen the fear that it might accelerate Alzheimer's disease (AD). "What can be red from these results is that there is a suspected health risk in using a mobile phone. A disease like Alzheimer's disease might appear after ten years or so" [5].

Another nervous system disease is ALS, amyotrophical lateral sclerosis, that primarily attacks the spinal nerves and to a less extent the brain. No reports or suggestions have so far been put forward to connect ALS with the use of mobile phones. The hypothesis to test is thus that Alzheimer mortality should show a significant correlation with the output power from the mobile phones while no such correlation should be found for ALS.

Methods
The average output pulse power from mobile phones was calculated based on mobile phone coverage maps over all counties in Sweden together with real measurements of output power in several parts of Sweden. The measured output power [1] was used to 'calibrate' the coverage information by a simple model: P(W) = 2-0,95T-0,55 T2 where T is the fraction of the county area that is claimed to have full coverage according to the operators. The coverage T represents the status around 1999 according to available coverage maps and can here be seen as some kind of average for the time period 1997 to 2001. The modeling thus did not consider the variation in coverage over time. Note that the output power represents an average value for all mobile phones in the county and not an individual level for one single phone. The output power from one individual phone may at a given time be as low as 2 mW while the lowest average value according to the model is 500 mW.

All data on the mortality in nervous system diseases was obtained from The National Board of Health and Welfare in Sweden. It became obvious that this mortality showed an increase from the late 1980's. All main groups according to the classification were then analysed for trend changes and we found that the single main contributor to the increasing mortality was that of Alzheimer's disease (AD). AD was then studied regarding its mortality over the time period 1969 to 2002, both regarding trends and correlation to mobile phone output power data. The mortality data was also reviewed for all different age groups and the changing number of deaths per age group. Another nervous disease, ALS, was also studied regarding its mortality and possible correlation to mobile phone output power in the Swedish counties.

Results
Figure 1:
shows that the number of deaths in nervous system diseases started to increase from late 1980's and onwards. In the same graph is given the number of deaths in circulation-related diseases, where no such trend-break is seen. As a matter of fact, this trend is continuously improving.

A closer analysis of different diseases within the group "nervous system diseases" revealed that AD was the main contributor to the strong increase of deaths during the years since the late 1980's.
Figure 2:
shows the crude mortality in AD according to The National Board of Health and Welfare in Sweden. In the same diagram the accumulated numbers of spoken mobile phone minutes since 1981 have been added.

Figure 2 made it logical to investigate if counties having high output power from mobile phones also have a high mortality in AD and other nervous system diseases.
This is presented in Figure 3.
Figure 4:
shows that the mortality in AD has been increasing faster in the more sparsely populated counties of Sweden then in more densely populated counties.

In Figure 3 we noticed a significant correlation between average output power and the average mortality in AD during 2000 to 2002. It is worth mentioning that mobile phones and related transmitters first became available for public communication in 1981.

A similar analysis of the correlation between ALS mortality and output power from mobile phones was done. Figure 5 shows that in this case no correlation was found.

Figure 6:
gives the age-specific mortality in AD in Sweden for the years 1969 to 2002 and Figure 7 gives the age-standardised mortality (ASR 1970) for the same years.

Figure 8:
shows, finally, the extrapolated number of annual deaths in AD based on estimated future prevalence of AD in Sweden [6].

Discussion
This disease is typically affecting elderly people but hits occasionally also people under 50 years of age. Both men and women are victims. Before 1981 only a few deaths (<40) were registered as caused by AD. According to Kjell Asplund at the National Board of Health and Welfare in Sweden those were mostly younger victims. Older cases were not always registered as deaths due to Alzheimer, but more likely due to other reasons. However, as time passed deaths due to AD became more frequently noticed and the outcome can be seen in Figure 2. This also means that the earlier low numbers of Alzheimer deaths actually might have been somewhat larger if the underlying cause of death had been more carefully considered.

Over the time there have been changes in death-cause classification [7].

However, according to the National Board of Health and Welfare in Sweden there was not a substantial change in the classification of Alzheimer deaths in 1997, i.e. Alzheimer deaths after 1997 includes also pre-senile dementia deaths just as before. Figure 1 also shows that there was no stepwise increase of the number of deaths due to AD between 1996 and 1997 as clearly was the case for the deaths from other nervous diseases.
Figure 2 indicates a possible relationship between the use of mobile phones and deaths in AD. Such a connection has been indicated by animal studies [8, 9]. The fact that we can see a significant connection between the mortality of this disease and the average output pulse power from mobile phones also gives a strong argument to suspect a connection between the disease and the use of mobile phones.
Figure 6 shows that the mortality in age groups 62, 67 and 72 years have stabilised while age groups 77 to 85+ still are continuously increasing or possibly just about to settle (77). This could indicate that an environmental change suddenly started to affect elderly people. A similar pattern, effective from the age of puberty, seems to have developed since 1955 in Sweden regarding malignant melanoma of skin [10].
There are a some questions related to this study worth discussing:

1. Is there any risk of passive exposure?

Yes, but this is part of the general exposure picture from mobile phones. Either you talk in the phone yourself or a neighbour in the bus will expose you to 900 MHz/1800 MHz. This does not change the analysis at all in this case.

2. Is it enough with “one/few” exposure or is the cumulative exposure of importance for the development of the disease?

We have not shown that the disease is caused by using mobile phones, but that the cumulative exposure may accelerate the mortality among AD victims.

Anonymous
# Posted: 6 Nov 2007 16:34
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